Asia

Commentary: Is North Korea tearing at the seams?

adminJune 18, 20203 Mins read76 Views

SEOUL: By detonating a bomb to destroy the inter-Korean liaison office in its territory on Tuesday (Jun 16), North Korea sent a clear message: Pyongyang is done talking.

The office was set up in 2018 as a forum for communication between South and North Korea that would allow the two sides to harness momentum created by summit meetings between their leaders.

At the office, government officials would be able to meet away from the spotlight to do the real work of policymaking, hammering out agreements for cooperation between the two sides.

READ: Commentary: North Korea is frustrated we are not taking it seriously

But that cooperation never got off the ground and by the time North Korea reduced the building to rubble on Tuesday, the office had been idle for months, due to precautions over the novel coronavirus, and a lack of momentum in inter-Korean ties.

LONGSTANDING FRUSTRATION

The explosion is the most decisive action North Korea has taken in a string of moves that indicated that Pyongyang no longer wishes to keep up friendly ties with the South.

For months, North Korea has ignored the Souths calls to move forward on cooperative projects, and last week, Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of leader Kim Jong Un, declared that the North would now approach the South as an “enemy.”

To understand North Koreas decision to literally destroy its relationship with the South, it is important to note current developments in the North, and longstanding themes in how the Kim regime operates.

The Korean joint liaison office in Kaesong opened to fanfare in 2018. South Korea says the North has now blown up the office. (Photo: AFP)

First, North Korea is currently facing two major, inter-related crises.

On one hand, comprehensive international sanctions are making it nearly impossible for the country to carry out any international trade. These sanctions, mostly implemented by the United Nations (UN), are intended to make it impossible for the state to earn money to fund its weapons programmes.

But, unlike targeted sanctions, the measures affect all North Koreans, not only people connected to government or the military. This means that North Korean coal and seafood companies cannot export their goods and that farmers cant import the fuel and equipment they need.

International observers have therefore reported signs of severe food shortages in the North, with the UN World Food Programme recently estimating that 10 million North Koreans are in need of humanitarian aid.

PYONGYANGS OLD PLAYBOOK

On the other hand, the global coronavirus pandemic has compounded the countrys economic problems. While North Korea has not admitted to having even one confirmed case of the virus, the country closed its border with China in January, thereby severing its one active link with the outside world.

Kim Yo Jong has long been one of her brother's most trusted advisers and among the most powerful women in North Korea, but her public profile is mounting rapidly and she has been mooted as a potential successor AFP/JORGE SILVA

There are also signs that the North is allocating its increasingly scarce state funds to expanding its medical care capacity, either to brace for an eventual coronavirus outbreak, or deal with one that is already ongoing.

With nearly all North Koreans feeling the effects of the trying times, North Korea is resorting to its old playbook and coming up with a crisis to distract the public.

READ: Commentary: North Korea may have benefited from the pandemic after all

To draw attention away from their own shortcomings, North Koreas leaders have for decades pushed stories that the country must unite against malevolent outsiders who wish ill on the country.

In this instance, North Korea has targeted groups of activists, some of whom are North Korean defectors, who fly balloons carrying leaflets that contain anti-North Korean messages across the border.

The groups argue that the launches provide North Koreans with access to accurate information about their country, specifically how the leadership spends millions on weapons and luxury goods while most North Koreans live in poverty.

The launches have been going on for years, and while North Korea has complained about them, and even tried to shoot balloons out of the air, this weeks actions are by far the most severe reaction to them.

TIES WITH US AND SOUTH KOREA

At the root of North Koreas frustration is the regimes failure to win sanctions relief through negotiations with South Korea and the United States.

In summits over the past few years, both Seoul and Washington have been careful not to yield on sanctions in the absence of credible moves toward denuclearisation by North Korea.

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 is stressing North Korea out

North Korea seemed to approach those summits with the ambition of winning sanctions relief without giving up its nuclear weapons. Pyongyang appears at the moment to be focussing criticism on the South so as to leave open the door for possible negotiations with the US.

Another source of vexation for Pyongyang is South Korean President Moon Jae-ins administration insisting on operating within the strictures of sanctions, and not embarking on any projects that violate sanctions on North Korea.