Yestarday's migration figures, showing a decline in the number of arrivals from the EU, will have put the frighteners on businesses already worried about a skills and labour shortage.
The numbers should also focus the minds of ministers on a burning question: what kind of immigration system do they want? Although their talk of getting overall net migration down to the tens of thousands might still be a way off, the numbers are dropping – and this raises important policy questions for those tasked with securing our post-Brexit economic future.
It is a cause of considerable regret that, 20 months on from the referendum, EU nationals in the UK still face uncertainty about their future status.
We can argue over whose fault this is (neither side of the negotiation has covered itself in glory on this issue) but the reality is it has acted as a deterrent to those considering coming here to work. Thankfully, the damage is not terminal.
There are still more EU nationals here today than there were this time last year, and net migration from outside the bloc has risen – largely driven by arrivals from Asia. While it’s too soon to detect a trend, the latest figures on EU migration do force us to consider the consequences of a sustained drop in workers from the continent.
Read more: Retailers call for simplification of points-based immigration system
Economists have repeatedly warned that a government can either have economic growth or it can have net migration reduced to the tens of thousands. It cannot have both. Of course, the economic argument is only part of the equation, and pro-immigration advocates who talk only in terms of economic gains hardly help their cause among people who either haven’t felt such gains or don’t believe the argument in the first place.
Repeated polls, elections and surveys reveal a public appetite to have control over our borders. Many prioritise this expression of sovereignty above actually reducing the number of arrivals.
At present, the government has failed to articulate (let alone legislate for) a post-Brexit immigration strategy. In the ensuing vacuum, pro-immigration voices howl at the fall in numbers while those favouring controls on immigration are left wondering what changes ministers propose to make. In a healthy democracy it’s important to respond to public desire for control over who comes in, but that doesn't mean the numbers have to be ground down, whatever the cost.
Read more: Net migration declines as number of EU migrants coming to UK drops
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