Remainer MPs are expecting today's debate on the customs union to be a wash-out – but longer term claim they "have the numbers" to force the government's hand.
A motion tabled by senior MPs including Tories Nicky Morgan, Bob Neill and Sarah Wollaston will be debated this afternoon, squeezed between a number of urgent questions and another debate.
Both Labour and Conservative MPs have been given a one-line whip and the debate is not expected to result in a vote on whether to include a customs union provision in the future relationship with the EU, which would not be binding.
However amendments tabled to future legislation, including the Trade Bill and Cross Border Trade Bill are gaining momentum amongst Conservatives, threatening to upset Theresa May's weak majority.
One Tory source said: "We know we've got the numbers. The chief whip has told Number 10 he can't win it. That's why the bills have been pushed back [into the autumn]."
The source said there were now at least 13 Tory rebels willing to defy the whip over the customs union, with more willing to abstain, having been a "big change" in mood over Christmas.
"Before Christmas [the numbers] were not great, but people went home for Christmas, spent time with their friends and families, spoke to people who are running businesses who said 'what the hell are you doing?'… Businesses have been speaking to their MPs and it's having the effect we suspected it would have," the MP added.
"People are not going to stick their necks out today because it's not legally binding, Labour's not going to call a vote and nobody [on the Conservative side] wants to embarrass the government a week before the local elections," said a Labour MP.
But ultimately, "whether we stay in the Single Market is absolutely in Jeremy's hands," he added.
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