Business

Will Theresa May’s fudge save her bacon?

If Theresa May was hoping her latest fudge would be wolfed down by sweet-toothed Tory MPs, she was quickly put right last night.

Just two hours after Rebel remainers were claiming to have secured a victory on the question of a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal, Downing Street published an amendment that fundamentally changed Tory Remainers they thought had been signed and sealed.

Instead of allowing MPs to intervene in the event of no deal being reached by mid-January – which would almost certainly have paved the way for the softest of Brexits (but which may also result in a punishing deal from the EU) the amendment as published grants "a motion in neutral terms" – removing the ability of MPs to alter it with, for example, a demand to stay in the single market.

Perhaps she finally picked a side. Brexiters are playing it down – “we can live with it” was the best one pro-Leave MP could muster – but it also signifies a refusal to cede control to those who would seek to maintain the status quo as much as possible.

Or perhaps the rebels bought into their own hype – after all, the Prime Minister had made it abundantly clear during PMQs that she would not agree anything that might bind the governments hands during negotiations. But either way, the fudge is leaving Remainers with a bad taste in their mouths, which will only make the next battles harder for Theresa May to win.

Not only will this amendment have to pass the Lords – with the likelihood of being returned to the Commons – she now has to get the Customs Bill and Trade Bill past MPs, and get the final deal agreed.

But politics is the art of the possible, and for all her dithering and procrastination, May has so far managed to hold onto her position atop a deeply divided party, make (modest) progress on the talks in Brussels and prevent any major catastrophes like leadership challenges or Cabinet resignations.

As with David Davis constant resignation threats, there is a risk the rebels will turn into the boy who cried wolf – they have threatened again and again to make life difficult for her, before capitulating on every vote.

If they are serious, now is the time to either make one last stand, or finally accept that Brexit means Brexit.

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CityAM

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