Commentary: COVID-19 will leave more young Indonesians unemployed

JAKARTA: COVID-19 continues to slow down Indonesias economy, and this may have severe impacts on recent graduates entering the job market for the first time.

With the countrys economic growth shrinking to 2.97 per cent during the first quarter of 2020, many companies started cutting recruitment of new employees as early as March.

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The National Planning and Development Agency recently announced the countrys unemployment rate could hit its highest in more than a decade, rising to 9.2 per cent – or nearly 13 million people – by the end of 2020.

Before the pandemic, 2019 estimates from the International Labour Organisation placed Indonesias 15 to 24 year old unemployment rate at 17.04 per cent as the second highest in Southeast Asia, behind only Brunei Darussalam at 30.04 per cent.

Indonesias rate has stagnated at high levels for the past two decades, having never gone below 15 per cent since the 1998 economic crisis.

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 is likely to worsen gender inequality in Asia

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The Conversation spoke to doctoral candidate in economics at Waseda University Japan, Tifani Siregar, who said even before the pandemic, employment trends for Indonesias youth were already concerning, and will worsen.

She says the pandemic will worsen the labour market for Indonesias young candidates in three ways: Higher barriers of entry into the job market, long lasting lower income levels and worsening labour conditions.

HIGHER BARRIERS TO ENTRY

Low levels of education in the countrys workforce, inadequate vocational training programs and an increasing skills deficit due to digital advancements are often seen as contributing factors to high unemployment figures before the pandemic.

SMERU Research Institute researcher Muhammad Adi Rahman told The Conversation the pandemic will make penetrating the job market more difficult for them in the years to come.

“The competition will be much more fierce as they will have to fight it off not only with other young candidates, but also with job seekers who were laid-off because of the crisis,” he said.

Tifani, on the other hand, says Indonesias relatively “rigid” labour market also makes companies hiring practices during the recession even more rigorous.

“In Indonesia, there are a lot of regulations designed to protect workers, from higher firing costs to relatively higher minimum wages compared to the national average,” she explains.

Things will get worse even after the pandemic recedes, Tifani adds, as firms become more careful in recruiting new employees.

READ: Commentary: Indonesia is reopening for business even with record high COVID-19 infections

A 2016 study by the Institute of Labour Economics (ILO) in Germany, for instance, found young candidates entering a rigid labour market during a recession were more likely to get trapped in unemployment.

LONG LASTING LOWER INCOME LEVELS

Tifani warned that even for young people who manage to get a job amid the pandemic, they will suffer long-lasting financial losses compared to those getting a job in normal economic conditions.

A 2012 joint study by researchers from the University of Toronto and Columbia University found graduating and job-seeking during a recession results in lower income levels that persist for at least 10 years before catching up with their peers.

“During normal times those employed in high level jobs are provided with training and programs, but during a recession, companies are unable to invest as much in human capital,” Tifani explains.

WORSENING LABOUR CONDITIONS

Hizkia Polimpung, a researcher at Bhayangkara University in Jakarta, says aside from lower income, the recession might also negatively impact working conditions.

The impact will be worse for young job seekers as they will have a reduced “wage reservation” – the lowest salary at which a worker would be willing to accept a particular type of job – compared to experienced workers.

“The end result is not only the possibility of unemployment, but also abusive employment conditions,” he said.

READ: Commentary: How Brazil became the second-worst COVID-hit country in the world

The poor employment conditions might, among others, force desperate young graduates to accept jobs they are overqualified for with low pay and minimum growth opportunities. Others might even be forced to accept informal jobs, typically characterised by their vulnerable contract terms and substandard working conditions.

Around 50 per cent of Indonesias young workforce already work in informal jobs, with the number projected to increase due to the pandemic.

At the global level, for instance, ILO recorded an increase of young people in informal sectors from 83 per cent toRead More – Source

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