Irans oil exports so far in March are down from January and February to average around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd ahead of the US decision to extend or deny new waivers, Reuters reported Thursday.
This compares to around 1.3 million bpd estimated Iranian exports for February.
The US waivers for eight key Iranian oil customers, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea, expire in early May. While the US Administration says that it continues to pursue zero Iranian oil exports, analysts expect Washington to extend waivers to at least a few of the currently exempted buyers, with reduced volumes allowed under the new waivers, as the Administration wouldnt want to push oil prices too high.
In January and February this year, Iranian crude oil exports were higher than expected, as several of Irans customers were using up their US sanction waivers to continue importing Iranian oil, according to industry sources and shipping data, quoted by Reuters 10 days before the end of February.
According to tanker-tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon and a source at a company tracking Iranian oil flows, Irans exports in February averaged 1.25 million bpd, while the January exports were between 1.1 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, higher than the previously expected below 1-million-bpd level, which was seen in December.
While tracking Irans oil exports has become an increasingly difficult task after the US sanctions returned in early November, some of the key Iranian oil customers that received US waivers resumed Iranian oil purchases in 2019 or increased imports to their respective ceiling allowed under the waivers, after an initial wait-and-see mode for November and December purchases amid uncertainties who is getting waivers.
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As the waivers window will be shrinking as we approach early May, buyers may be rushing to buy what thRead More
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