SYDNEY: The last day in September in 2021 will mark the end of the current term for Abe Shinzo as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Prime Minister of Japan.
Due to LDP policy that a president cannot serve more than three consecutive terms, the next 18 months will most likely be Abes last opportunity as Prime Minister to pursue his cherished goal of amending Article 9 of the Japanese constitution.
Advertisement
Advertisement
After dealing with corruption allegations in his own party at the end of last year, preparations are in place to pursue a minor amendment to the famous article.
Abe certainly has a powerful base. He became the longest serving Prime Minister last November and has now won six elections (upper and lower house) in a row. His longevity, due in part to a weak opposition, has provided political stability in Japan.
Yet notably, Abes approval rating dropped eight points to 41 per cent in the most recent Mainichi newspaper poll in February, which is the sharpest fall in two years. He will be hoping that the Tokyo Olympics will give him a bounce in the polls and allow him to call an early election in the lower house.
READ: Commentary: Japan shows how not to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak
Advertisement
Advertisement
READ: Japan draws criticism over response to coronavirus-stricken cruise ship
ABES STANCE ON ARTICLE 9
Unlike previous LDP prime ministers, who were discreet in their intentions to amend Article 9, Abe has been open about his long-term plan. His focus, which was heavily influenced by his maternal grandfather and former prime minister Nobusuke Kishi (1956–1960), is that the 1946 Constitution was imposed upon Japan by the United States-led occupation forces.
Article 9 according to Abe, therefore, is a limitation on Japans rights to have a fully functional defence force which includes offensive military capabilities. From this perspective, Japan cannot be a “normal state” until Japan has a fully functional armed force.
Japan's armed forces act only in self-defence under a pacifist constitution imposed by the United States after World War 2. (Photo: AFP/Frederic J Brown)
It is worth noting that Abe has taken a cautious approach on the amendment issue. He is only advocating for an additional clause that acknowledges the existence of the Self- Defense Forces (SDF).
The strategy, which is to make the change as minimal as possible with the view to reduce opposition, is indicative of the delicate political manoeuvring that is ongoing in Tokyo.
AMENDMENTS HIGHLY POLITICAL
Drafting of the third clause is highly political and is being closely scrutinised. One draft being discussed is: “The provisions of the preceding two paragraphs do not hinder the exercise of the right to self-defence.”
Even this seemingly innocuous statement is problematic in Japan. The SDF, which has been in existence since 1954 when a high court ruling interpreted that this was within the interpretation of Article 9, is not universally recognised as in the spirit of the constitution.
READ: Commentary: Japan, the rising sun that rises again
READ: Commentary: The great COVID-19 disruption to Asian economies has begun
Nonetheless, the SDF has been accepted as legitimate by the then Socialist Party since 1994, and the SDF is associated with international peacekeeping efforts and assistance during natural disasters in Japan. It has a high profile and a positive image in the public arena.
Abes chances of pushing through even moderate changes to the cherished 1946 “Peace Constitution” are not guaranteed, however. The requirements for constitutional change are a formidable challenge; two-thirds majority in both Houses of the Diet, and at least 51 per cent support in a referendum.
Currently the LDP-Komeito coalition has a two-third majority in the Lower House, but only 141 seats of 245 available seats in the Upper House. It means tricky political negotiations with the Peoples Party (Kokuminto) and the Constitutionalist Party (Rikken Minshuto) to secure sufficient support in the Diet.
The additional complication is that Abes coalition partner, Clean Government Party (Komeito), has traditionally opposed any amendment of Article 9. As a consequence, a push towards an amendment will be divisive within Komeito and may damage the party and indeed lead to a rupture in the coalition.
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (3rd L), who is also ruling Liberal Democratic Party leader, raises his fists with coalition Komeito Party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi (L) atop of campaign van at Tokyo's Shibuya district in Tokyo, Japan September 28, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai
Although Komeito is a small party (only holding 29 seats in the Lower House and 28 seats in the Upper House), its support is crucial. As well as providing numerical support to achieve a powerful two-thirdRead More – Source
[contf]
[contfnew]
channel news asia
[contfnewc]
[contfnewc]
